Airline economic analysis
Balancing passenger demand, aging fleets, and supply chain constraints
The airline industry is benefiting from very strong passenger demand, with 2025 estimated to have generated more than $1 trillion in passenger revenues and a record 5.2 billion air travelers, according to Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026–2036, although final figures for the year have yet to be confirmed.
The industry faces significant constraints, however, as manufacturing capacity is struggling to keep pace with soaring demand. At the start of 2026, the industry had a backlog of about 17,000 unfilled aircraft orders, which could take more than 12 years to clear at current production rates. As a result, airlines are relying more heavily on older aircraft.
The report notes that supply chain, labor, and structural constraints all contribute to the manufacturing shortfall. Aircraft production in 2025 remained well below 2019 levels.
Overall, near-term challenges are balanced with a positive long-term outlook. However, airlines, manufacturers, and maintenance providers will need more investment, stronger supply chains, and greater operating efficiency to handle continued demand growth.
in global passenger revenue
air travelers
global net profit margin
Read the full analysis from Oliver Wyman.